Original application practice · 19 indicative marks

Ecological sampling: estimates and causation

Answer without the guided prompts, then review the science and working.

These are our practice questions and indicative marks, not examination-board questions or an awarded grade. The data are shared with guided practice; a case you have already studied is not an unseen test.

Context and data

Eight non-overlapping 0.50 m² quadrats were placed at randomly selected positions across a 2000 m² field. A plant count and soil-moisture reading were recorded at each position. The field boundary defines the sampling area.

Independent quadrat observations
QuadratPlant countSoil moisture / %
1220
2015
3535
4122
5432
6018
7330
8125

Questions, data and answer guidance.

Return to exam conditions

Five exam-condition questions

1. Estimate the total number of plants in the field.

3 indicative marks

2. Describe the relationship between soil moisture and plant abundance.

3 indicative marks

3. A student concludes that watering the field would produce the increase in plant abundance shown by the table. Evaluate this conclusion.

4 indicative marks

4. Describe how you would investigate the relationship between position down a slope and the abundance of this plant.

6 indicative marks

5. Suggest how the field abundance estimate could be improved. Explain how your change would help.

3 indicative marks

Answer guidance

Original self-review guidance, not an official mark scheme. Other scientifically valid responses may express the same ideas.

1. Calculate · 3 indicative marks

The eight quadrats cover 4 m² and contain 16 plants. Estimated density is 4 plants m⁻², giving 8000 plants in 2000 m².

  1. Obtain a mean of 16 ÷ 8 = 2 plants per quadrat.
  2. Convert to density: 2 ÷ 0.50 = 4 plants m⁻².
  3. Estimate 4 × 2000 = 8000 plants.

Alternatives: Scaling 16 plants from 4 m² of sampled area to 2000 m² is an equivalent method. The result assumes the sample represents the defined field.

This is an estimate from a sample, not an exact census.

Teaching explanation

Total count = 16, so mean count = 16/8 = 2 plants per quadrat. Density = 2/0.50 = 4 plants m⁻². Estimated field total = 4 × 2000 = 8000 plants, assuming the sample adequately represents the defined field.

2. Describe · 3 indicative marks

Higher moisture is generally associated with more plants. The 15% and 18% quadrats contain none, while 32% and 35% contain four and five. The counts are not exactly proportional to moisture.

  1. Identify a positive association between moisture and plant count.
  2. Support it with accurate paired observations, such as zero plants at 15% and 18% but four and five at 32% and 35%.
  3. Recognise variation or the absence of an exactly proportional relationship.

Alternatives: A correct scatter-plot description is acceptable. Counts at 22% and 25% are both one; the relationship is not a fixed plants-per-percentage ratio.

Do not state statistical significance without an appropriate test and result.

Teaching explanation

Higher moisture readings are generally associated with larger counts: the 15% and 18% quadrats have no plants, while those at 32% and 35% contain four and five. The pattern is not perfectly proportional; for example, the counts at 22% and 25% are both one.

3. Evaluate · 4 indicative marks

The counts suggest an association, but the quadrats were not assigned different watering treatments. Other conditions may covary with moisture and influence the plants. The table therefore does not predict how much abundance would change after watering.

  1. Recognise that the table supports an observed association.
  2. Explain that moisture was measured rather than independently manipulated.
  3. Identify a relevant possible covarying factor, such as light, soil nutrients or disturbance.
  4. Conclude that the observations do not establish the causal effect or size of the effect of watering.

Alternatives: A controlled watering investigation is a valid way to explain what further evidence is needed. Other plausible field confounds are acceptable when linked to both moisture and abundance.

Insufficient causal evidence does not prove that water has no effect.

Teaching explanation

The observations show an association, but moisture was not independently manipulated. Light, nutrients or disturbance could covary with moisture and affect abundance. A controlled comparison varying moisture while making other relevant factors comparable would better test its causal effect. The field table alone does not predict the size of that effect.

4. Describe · 6 indicative marks

Run replicated transects down the slope. Sample fixed-area quadrats at pre-set distances, recording plant counts and environmental conditions at each. Calculate density and plot it against distance. If the observations are suitably independent, Spearman’s rank can test a monotonic association between distance and abundance.

  1. Lay a transect along the slope and record position or distance from a defined start.
  2. Place quadrats at pre-set intervals, using a consistent known area.
  3. Count the target species consistently and calculate abundance or density at each position.
  4. Use replicate transects or independent quadrats to assess spatial variation.
  5. Measure relevant environmental conditions at the same positions.
  6. Plot or compare abundance against position and state an appropriate association test if assumptions are met.

Alternatives: A belt transect or a justified stratified design across slope positions can be valid. Spearman’s rank can assess a monotonic association between position and abundance; a named test must match the collected variables. Credit defensible alternatives rather than requiring identical wording.

A single transect may leave observations spatially dependent. A test name alone does not resolve that limitation or demonstrate causation.

Teaching explanation

Random placement gives field positions a defined chance of inclusion and reduces deliberate choice of plant-rich patches. Enough independent samples are needed to assess spatial variation. A slope pattern instead calls for position-based sampling along a justified transect, measuring both abundance and relevant environmental conditions.

5. Suggest · 3 indicative marks

Take more independent random quadrats and report the spread of the counts. This samples spatial variation more fully and supports a better estimate of the mean and its uncertainty.

  1. Increase the number of independently located, randomly selected quadrats or use a justified random sample within defined habitat strata.
  2. Explain how the change better samples spatial variation or improves precision of the estimated mean.
  3. Report the spread or a justified uncertainty estimate rather than presenting 8000 as exact.

Alternatives: A justified increase in total sampled area or representative stratification can earn the method point. Recounting existing quadrats addresses observer error, but does not add new information about spatial variation.

More quadrats do not automatically remove a biased selection method.

Teaching explanation

Increase the number of independently placed random quadrats and report the distribution of counts or a justified uncertainty estimate. This better assesses spatial variation and the precision of the estimated mean. It does not make every field location identical or turn 8000 into an exact census.

Print exam-condition questions · Print questions and guidance

Selected OCR A H420 connections: 4.2.1, 6.3.1, 6.3.2. Use official papers for examination-board assessment.